A Model to Predict Fatality Rate of Road Accidents in Sri Lanka

Abstract

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Today road safety has become an important talking point. The authorities are making an effort to reduce the problem. Scientists try to find causes, prevention methods and predict the future of the problem. This thesis mainly emphasizes prediction models of fatal road accidents. The fatal accident figure is given in three ways namely the rate per thousand persons, thousand cumulative vehicle fleet and million vehicle kilometers. Also effectiveness of helmet law and rider experience on rider fatalities are discussed. Models for fatality rates are developed based on thousand persons, thousand cumulative vehicle fleet and million vehicle kilometers. Population and vehicle kilometers are highly correlated with fatality figure. The study also shows that the effect of the helmet law does not significantly reduce the rider fatality figure per thousand motor cycles. The riders with less than one-year experience significantly contributed to rider fatality figure.