Significance of Meal Forecasting in Airline Catering on Food Waste Minimization

Abstract

Forecasting demand for products and services in the airline industry is particularly important. Research objectives are to assess the relationship of meal demand variance and kitchen wise waste per meal and to identify the importance of having forecasted meal demands before 24 hours to the estimated time of departure (ETD). Initial meal demand, final meal demand, meal demand variance and number of meals catered per day are the independent variables, and the dependent variable is production waste per meal (kg). A combination of descriptive research, correlation research and applied research were used. The population of this study was all the airlines catered to from July to October 2017. The selected sample for the study was 75% percent of total meals and 80% of sectors during the research period. Irrespective of the month, the pattern of the average daily meal count for weekdays has continued throughout the period of the research. Each sub kitchens has reported the lowest average waste per meal on August which is the Peak period with highest meal demand of the research period. The least waste per meal and the standard deviation were detected in the confectionery. Minimum waste per meal was achieved when the initial meal demand was 100% of the flight with zero meal demand variance. The highest portion of average waste per meal was generated by the vegetable room followed by the hot kitchen. The average meal demands of all the classes of the airlines have increased representing that the risk of the increasing of the meal demands within last 24 hours has transferred to the caterer by the airline. The company has to invest for a better forecasting system and should search for other options such as standard meals for the increases (Meal Bank), standard uplift with the agreement of the customer airline to uplift standard quantity of meals for each class.