Risk assessment in commercial real estate development An application of analytic network process

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the commercial property development risk factors from the entrepreneur’s point of view against social, economic, environmental, technological and political risk assessment criteria. After that, this study aims to assess the risk factors based on the analytical network process(ANP)modelandtoprioritizethekeyriskfactorstoidentifywhichriskfactorishighlyaffectedtothe commercial development process. Design/methodology/approach–Thedatawerecollectedthroughface-to-faceinterviewsusingastructured questionnaire. The analysis of the risk factors involved the ANP model using super decision software. Findings – The results revealed that there are five major risk factors such as environmental, social, economic, technological and political risk, and 32 sub-risk factors. According to the super matrix calculation, the synthesized values for three projects were 0.0704, 0.0532 and 0.0431, respectively. It was identified that WardCitywas0.0704,indicatingthatitiscomparativelylessriskyand,hence,canbecategorizedasthebest developmentandconsideringthesub-riskfactors;theresultsshowthatthehighlyaffectedriskfactorsforthe development are: the council approval process, climate changes and natural disaster, and the least affected risk factors are confidence to the market, lifecycle value, investment return and currency conversion factor. Practical implications – The paper includes implications for the development of commercial properties, risk and risk assessment criteria to make risk management strategies and policy implementation. Originality/value – The research findings are helpful in improving risk management strategies in the country,andpolicyformulationshouldfocusontheaboveidentifiedthreeriskfactorsinordertomitigatethe risk in every stage and to achieve sustainable project development while increasing the satisfaction of long-term investment goals.