Abstract:
Fertility is one of the key components that determine the population change in Sri Lanka.
Total Fertility Rates (TFR) are the average number of children a woman would have by the
end of her childbearing years (15-49) if she bore children at the current age-specific
fertility rates. The average has been declining over the past decade in Sri Lanka. It is
essential to understand the trends and patterns of TFR in that aspect to enhance the
quality of predetermined long-term economic, health and educational plans as well the
policy implements in the country. The main objective of the study is to identify the trends
and patterns of historic Total Fertility Rates of Sri Lanka (1960 – 2021) and future trends.
The study carries out based on the secondary data on TFR extracted from World Bank
data (1960-2021). Initially, the univariate time series analysis was utilized to identify the
pattern of TFR using the R Statistical software. This study revealed that there is a
decreasing future trend in TFR using ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model which was fitted as the best
model to forecast the future behavior TFR. The fitted model was. The forecasted TFR
values for the period from 2022 to 2026 were 1.9577, 1.9372, 1.9167, 1.8963 and
1.8758 respectively. It is suggested to have a comparative study on fertility trends and
patterns with consideration of socioeconomic and cultural factors in Sri Lanka since TFR
varies due to socioeconomic and cultural diversity.
